Population and Environment

In his September 11, 2013 Times of India article (reproduced on Yale Global) "A Syrian Lesson for India" Nayan Chanda traces the origins of the current civil war in Syria to multi-year draught that generated a large migration of from the affected areas to Syrian cities. India (and many other countries) are so close to the environmental "edge" that even the historically natural variations in climate are almost certain to put the socio-political-economic system under unbearable stress in not very distant future. Since any discussion of population is politically incorrect, I am not even sure what else India (or Pakistan or Bangladesh for that matter) can do to ameliorate this risk. Interestingly, an article by Ellis in September 13, 2013 New York Times is titled "Overpopulation is not the problem."

Of course, I would like to share Ellis's optimism, and think that at no stage of our existence shall we become bacteria in a petri dish. The critical statements in that article are

  1. "Who knows what will be possible with the technologies of the future?"
  2. "Our planet's human-carrying capacity emerges from the capabilities of our social systems and our technologies more than from any environmental limits."

The first is a statement on uncertainty about the future "our ignorance presented as knowledge in a rhetorical form. I also hope that our ingenuity in devising social and technological solutions to our challenges will keep up with the population for ever. Unfortunately, history of rise and fall of human civilizations and their populations (Rome, Mesoamerica, etc.) does not encourage such optimism.

Second, co-determination of the human-carrying capacity by social, technological and environmental considerations does not mean that the last factor is irrelevant. He has not made a case that joint consideration of factors A, B, and C should lead us to drop C from the equation.

Several consecutive draughts in Syria did not enable the population to devise technological solutions to food shortage in short order. The social response was migration and war. What happens if the monsoons fail in India for two or three years in a row. Will the densely populated deltas of south and southeast Asia be able to find the "social and technological" solutions to the sea levels rising by 10-20 feet over the next century?

Perhaps Mr. Ellis's answer is yes. Neither the "sky is falling" environmentalism nor Panglossian  consumerism are unsustainable.

Challenges of Running a University in India

Three key challenges are: (1) trust and trustworthiness, (2) balance of vigilance and docility, and most important, (3) the regard for public goods.

When people do not trust others to do the right thing, or do not deserve to be trusted to do the right thing, we try to make up for the trust deficit by writing down rules and procedures to impose order and bring about some predictability. Unfortunately, rules are poor substitutes for judgment, and coarsen communication, relationships, and performance in workplace and in society at large. But in absence of trust, there are no clear alternatives to rules. If a powerful politician calls the director/vice-chancellor of a university demanding the opportunity to speak to the community for political purposes, he/she is violating the trust placed in him/her by the public. The system reacts by trying to draft rules on who can and cannot speak, erring on the side of isolating the university community from legitimate and rich social and political engagement. If a member of faculty uses university resources for personal benefit, the system reacts by drafting rules that err on the side of preventing efficient and legitimate uses of resources. One can come up with many examples. In universities where the output of faculty (and the university) is so difficult to measure, this problem is especially critical, and writing of rules to try to measure faculty's intellectual contributions just makes it worse. What scares most people about taking such responsibilities is walking into an environment where trust and trustworthiness are weak, and not valued sufficiently by the governance structure and the community at large.

Universities, like all societies, face the problem of dispersed information (Nobel Laureate F. A. Hayek, American Economic Review 1945). On one hand it is critical that all people in positions of power be monitored by those who have the information about the consequences of their actions (e.g., employees, faculty, and students in the university and general public in society). On the other hand, it is also important that those who are governed have a degree of docility (Nobel Laureate Herbert A. Simon, American Economic Review 1993) to accept the decisions of legitimate authority even if they impose some inconvenience, and give the authority some benefit of doubt, instead of rising immediately in protest against every and all actions which are, or appear to be, ill-advised. Protests carried out judiciously help governance of the system by feeding information to those who run the place; indiscriminate protests vitiate the environment, destroy reputations, and push authority into a defensive posture behind the rules and become non-transparent. The second fear that scares people from accepting such positions is the risk that the governance structure and the community may not act with a reasonable balance between vigilance and docility.

The third, and in my assessment the most important, issue is the lack of regard for public goods and externalities. Excessive regard for private goods (my house, my car, my children, my safety) without balancing it with public goods/bads (filth outside my house, effect of my car on city air, traffic congestion, and walkability of the street outside my house, effect of private schools on quality of public education, effect of street parking of cars in residential neighborhoods blocking access of fire engines) are just a few examples. Although these examples are chosen from everyday life, they are also applicable to academia. In fact, academic communities often have more intense externalities than elsewhere,with actions of  members of a university having important impact on others. For example, when one faculty member lingers over a cup of tea to arrive late in the class, it affects the punctuality of students in all other classes. The possibility that the community may not value the public goods sufficiently, and transfer the burden of recognizing and enforcing the consequences of extensive externalities within the university to the director scares potential candidates. Such a responsibility immediately puts the director in an untenable position.

None of these three factors belong to the category that (like material resources) either the Board of Governors or the Ministry of Human Resource Development can offer a candidate on a platter. However, the former can, in their own day-to-day functions and decisions, consider how their choices will have consequences along these three dimensions. The same applies to the faculty and staff. Building a fruitful and rewarding academic institution is like growing a tree. No matter how badly I wish to eat mango for dinner today, my ability to do so depends on whether I planted and nurtured a mango tree over the past ten years. Likewise, if I wish to have mango on the table ten years from now, time to start is now. When even the subsidized apex institutions like IITs and IIMs focus their primary attention on the revenue generating degrees (B.Tech. and MBAs respectively) instead of dealing with the problem of insufficient top talent in teaching and scholarship by using their subsidies to support the negative-revenue PhD programs, it is clear that we have some distance to go to recognize and deal with the externalities in the domain of higher education in India.

Problems of Higher Education in India

If and when the fast growing crisis of higher education in India is recognized by government, business community, faculty, students, and the public, solutions to the problem would have to be devised from within. Outside solutions are unlikely to work, and will likely be rejected by a proud society.

Broadly speaking, solutions are needed for (1) attracting a significant number of top students from each year's class to universities as teachers and researchers (i.e., get India's Einsteins into universities instead of selling soap, trading securities, or writing computer code); (2) finding a way of financing higher education through a judicious combination of government grants, private philanthropy, student fees, and royalties from research--this will have to be accomplished without profit-seeking capital in higher education because nobody in the world has yet found a way of delivering quality education without significant subsidies; (3) persuading business and political communities and it is in their own best long-run interest to strengthen delivery of quality of higher education by abandoning their pursuit of profits from education in favor of donations; (4) improving the governance of colleges, universities and their regulators through training, legislation, and restructuring; (5) enforcement of Societies Act and transparent public financial reporting by all organizations and institutions of higher education; and (6) amendment of India's Constitution to eliminate the special status granted therein to the teachers.

How these and other goals are to be achieved has to be worked out through discussion and debate in India. On problem No. 1 listed above (attracting more of the top talent from each year's class into teaching and scholarship to do innovation in India) everyone in India seems to think that somehow the US and UK universities will solve India's problem. They can't and they won't. India (like China) is too big. These two countries have to solve their talent-in-teaching-shortage by themselves. Simply trying attract more people from US universities (on sabbatical, or otherwise) will not work, because about 500 other universities in India, and a few thousand others around the world are trying to do exactly the same thing. Many efforts amount to adding more straws to the same glass without adding any water to drink.

Yet, we do not get many bright people from India applying to "free" PHD education in US universities because selling "soap" offers more attractive "packages." And for Indian universities, PHD is a low priority, if they can attract bright students at all. Private universities have no interest in money losing propositions. So, most  everyone is chasing the revenue generating degree programs with little attention to the money-eating PhD programs, hoping that someone else will spend the money, solve the problem, and they can hire the PHD graduates to teach at their own institutions. For all universities in India, the number of PhDs getting science and engg. PhDs is no more than 7 thousand per year. There are some 3400 engineering schools alone.

Not surprisingly, I would like to see more attention to PhD programs, especially at government subsidized apex institutions. Further, revenue generation from alums and other benefactors to subsidize quality education should be a high priority. Quality faculty contributions are difficult to measure, and certainly not by the number of hours spent in the office. This calls for reconsideration of not only the culture of the Institute but also of the rules by which it is run. Civil service rulebook tends to kill off most innovation in Indian universities.